Scientists develop malaria forecasting tool to predict disease risk
This research from the University of Liverpool, in the UK, discusses a method to predict Malaria, which is one of the world’s deadliest diseases, killing more than one million people every year, as well as infecting a further 500 million worldwide. The mosquito-borne illness is endemic in several regions globally, but is most acute in Africa, home to an estimated 90 per cent of all cases.
Dr Andy Morse from the Department of Geography and colleagues from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting; Columbia University, New York and the Ministry of Health in Botswana, based their early-warning model on population vulnerability, rainfall and health surveillance data and then used forthcoming season forecasts for rainfall to predict unusual changes in the seasonal pattern of disease in Botswana. The team based their study on Botswana as its climate makes it susceptible to malaria epidemics.