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   <channel>
      <title>Punk Rock Operations Research</title>
      <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/</link>
      <description>~*~ Peace, Love, and Operations Research ~*~ </description>
      <language>en</language>
      <copyright>Copyright 2008</copyright>
      <lastBuildDate>Thu, 28 Aug 2008 18:29:20 +0000</lastBuildDate>
      <generator>http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/</generator>
      <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs> 

            <item>
         <title>our next president is...</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Although most pundits rely on <a href="http://pollster.com/">polls</a> to predict who will be our next President, the Presidential election is <em>not</em> a popularity contest--it's a <a href="http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/the_partition_problem_in_actio.html">partition problem</a> contest.  That is, the goal is to get a majority of electoral votes, and each state gives all of its votes to one of the two candidates (with a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College">couple of exceptions</a>).  Most states are red or blue, but there are a few swing states, and who gets elected depends on which way these states swing.

A <a href="http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/">nifty OR model</a> by <a href="https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/shj/www/shj.html">Sheldon Jacobson</a> (from the <a href="http://illinois.edu/">University of Illinois</a>), <a href="http://www.siue.edu/~srigdon/">Steven Rigdon</a> and Ed Sewell (both from <a href="http://www.siue.edu/">Southern Illinois University Edwardsville</a>) take advantage of the winner-take-all state elections to predict who will end up with the majority of electoral college votes.  They use state polling information in a <a href="http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/methodology.html">dynamic programming algorithm</a> to determine the probability distribution for the electoral college votes using Bayesian estimators.  As of now, the predict that <a href="http://www.barackobama.com/">Barack Obama</a> will win the election with a probability of <a href="http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/8-26-08/data.html">87%</a>.

<a href="http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu"><strong>Check out the model.</strong></a>

<a href="http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu"><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/e/e2/ElectoralCollege2004.svg/800px-ElectoralCollege2004.svg.png" width=500 height=250></a>]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/our_next_president_is.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/our_next_president_is.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Politics</category>
        
         <pubDate>Thu, 28 Aug 2008 18:29:20 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>good-bye Olympics</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Some food for thought as the <a href="http://www.nbcolympics.com/">Olympics</a> come to an end.

I enjoyed watching Usain Bolt break a few world records.  If you're a geek like me, you noticed that he was actually faster when running 200m than when running 100m (looking at average speed), due to the time to accelerate.  <a href="http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com">Freakonomics</a> has posts on the <a href="http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/25/whos-the-worlds-fastest-runner/">average speed</a> as well as <a href="http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/21/usain-bolt-its-just-not-normal/">extreme outliers</a> in the 200m distribution.

<a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/who-won-the-olympics-medal-count-let-me-count-the-ways-402/">Did the US win the medal count?</a>  Not is you only count gold medals or adjust for <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/medal-count-by-size-08.html">population and GDP</a> (Read another ranking for <a href="http://simon.forsyth.net/olympicsGDP2008.html">GDP</a> and <a href="http://simon.forsyth.net/olympics.html">population</a>).
]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/goodbye_olympics.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/goodbye_olympics.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Sports</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:07:32 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>OR &amp; HIV</title>
         <description><![CDATA[A couple of interesting tidbits on how OR can be used for HIV problems.

<a href="http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/543716/">Newswise reports</a> about research that sheds light on how to best use scarce resources for combating and treating HIV in resource-limited countries.  The study was led by Wei Xiong of the <a href="http://www.med.cornell.edu/publichealth/about_us/faculty.html">Public Health Department</a> at Weill Cornell Medical College and was published <a href="http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmchealthservres/">BMC Health Services Research</a>.

<a href="http://www.mba.yale.edu/news_events/CMS/Articles/6569.shtml">OR was used to estimate</a> that approximately 56,300 Americans were newly infected with HIV in 2006, which is 40% higher than CDC's former estimate of 40,000 new infections per year.  The research was performed by a team that included Ed Kaplan and was <a href="http://mba.yale.edu/faculty/pdf/jamakaplan.pdf">published</a> in <a href="http://jama.ama-assn.org/">JAMA</a>. Articles about this research appeared in the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/03/health/03aids.html?_r=1&ref=health&oref=slogin">NY Times</a>, the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121768718918307453.html?mod=googlenews_wsj">WSJ</a>, and <a href="http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jrnh_gC5X9veJpMh0XOd8xIII6CwD92A7BFO0">AP</a>. ]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/or_hiv.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/or_hiv.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Health</category>
        
         <pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 19:40:54 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>Olympic scheduling??</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<img src=http://www.granitegrok.com/pix/BeijingOlympics.jpg>

I am curious of how the Olympics schedules were determined, especially for sports like swimming, in which athletes compete in multiple events.  I became even more curious after seeing <a href="http://twonateshow.wordpress.com/2008/08/12/michael-phelps-daily-schedule-at-olympics/">Michael Phelps's schedule</a>.  Sadly, revenue seems to be one of the top considerations when it comes to scheduling, since NBC <a href="http://nbcumv.com/special/S__Press_DEPTS_NBCMV_Press_Kits_2008_olympics_schedule08.pdf">admits this</a>:
<blockquote>
NBC was able to get the Olympics organizers to schedule most of the key finals early in the morning Beijing time -- for live primetime coverage on the East Coast.
</blockquote>

If you find something, let me know!  I've been enjoying watching the Olympics.]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/olympic_scheduling.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/olympic_scheduling.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Sports</category>
        
         <pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 13:49:26 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>Mothering in academia</title>
         <description><![CDATA[I read a <a href="http://bluemilk.wordpress.com/2008/08/18/mama-phd-review/">review</a> for <em><a href="http://www.mamaphd.com/">Mama, PhD</a></em>, a new book about having children in academia that I am looking forward to reading (You can <a href="http://www.mamaphd.com/read-an-excerpt/">read an excerpt</a>).  That prompted me to finally write about <a href="http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/the_or_of_birth.html">my birth experience</a> and to now write about being a working mother.

First of all, I find all these books and articles on being a working mother overwhelmingly negative.  Millions of women are working mothers.  It's hard.  We manage.  Things could be better.  It's not Doomsday.  But if I wrote a book about it, I'd probably focus on the negatives as well. Things are not going to get better unless we talk about it.

Here is my brief take on motherhood and academia:
<ul>
  <li>Being an academic makes having a family easier (compared to working in industry) since our schedules are so flexible.  Flexibility and being able to work from home occasionally make it all manageable.
  <li>Things are changing rapidly.  I am shocked to hear some of the horror stories about women having to teach a week after giving birth and not being offered leave.  That isn't my experience at all.  I applied for a Sloan Foundation grant to take a semester off from teaching, and other young academic mothers I know have received incredible amounts of support.  Yeah, there are things that could improve, but I get the sense that maternity leaves are way better now than they were ten years ago (no, I never really left work behind, but that's another matter).  Things seem to be much better in academia than industry.
  <li>Things are changing rapidly for dads, too.  Dads help out with child care and house work more than ever.  They do like <a href="http://www.contemporaryfamilies.org/subtemplate.php?t=briefingPapers&ext=menshousework">three times as much child care</a> as dads a generation ago.  Dads deserve support, encouragement, and praise.
   <li>Mothers <a href="http://forums.bellaonline.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=301191">spend more time</a> with their kids than they did a generation ago!  (We're too hard on ourselves).
</ul>

Here are my two big gripes about motherhood and academia:
<ul>
<li>Day care.  I worry more about day care than tenure.  There are too few options for working moms, and it's hard to figure out child care when going to conferences.  Very hard.  Few universities have child care available, and universities that have evening classes ought to have options, since day cares close by 6pm.  My baby can't crawl herself home and babysit herself while I am teaching.
<li>Nursing.  If the thought of nursing makes you uncomfortable, stop reading now.  Nursing at home is easy, nursing at work is more challenging.  It's really hard to focus at a conference when I am struggling to discreetly take pumping breaks, pumping in a bathroom because someone turned my cozy private pumping room into a very public coat room, and constantly worrying about how I'm going to keep my milk cold before I get home when the hotel didn't provide the fridge I requested and the ice machine is broken.  None of this is unique to academia, but we do have to do a lot of conference travel.  It's all worth it, especially when babies stay so healthy (there are about <a href="http://www.promom.org/101/">100 more benefits</a>).  I refuse to feel awkward about it, because hey, babies have to eat.
</ul>

<a href="http://www.grad.berkeley.edu/deans/mason/">Mary Ann Mason</a> (a dean at Berkeley) is an expert on women and men academics having children pretenure.  The data shows that women who have children young don't get tenure and that men who have children pre-tenure are rewarded with tenure.  In a talk I attended, Dr. Mason suggested that academic mothers tend to leave pipeline rather than get denied tenure, which is good news for those who stick with academia.  Her data also showed that academic mothers average more than 13 hours of work per day (counting child care), which sounds about right.  Don't get me wrong, motherhood is infinitely rewarding, but it is also a lot more work than I imagined.  She wrote a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Mothers-Fast-Track-Generation-Balance/dp/0195182677/ref=sr_1_1/103-3628107-0063814?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1189352172&sr=8-1">book</a> about this that I haven't read yet, but if it's anything like her talk, it will be great.  You can also read her articles <a href="http://www.grad.berkeley.edu/deans/mason/Babies%20Matter1.pdf">Do Babies Matter?</a> and <a href="http://ucfamilyedge.berkeley.edu/babies%20matterII.pdf">Do Babies Matter II?</a>.
]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/mothering_in_academia.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/mothering_in_academia.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Work-Life Balance</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 20 Aug 2008 10:20:15 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>The OR of birth</title>
         <description><![CDATA[As many of you know, I recently had a baby.  I wanted to get my act together before blogging about the OR of pregnancy, labor, and delivery.  This is eight months overdo, but better late than never.  I apologize if this is TMI, but I think it's important to write about work-life balance.

As far as delivery goes, trusting one's body seems to work best.  I had my second natural childbirth with the help of the wonderful midwives at <a href="http://www.vcuhealth.org">MCV</a>.  I'm normally all for conventional medical care, but a conventional labor and delivery <a href="http://www.philly.com/inquirer/health_science/20080225_She_pushes_for_natural_birth.html">yields depressing outcomes</a>.  For example, the rate of Cesareans is now at an all-time high of 31%.  The <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2008-01-07-csections_n.htm">rate of pregnancy-related deaths</a> has also risen from a low of 7 per 100,000 in the 90's to 14 out of 100,000 in 2004, which has been blamed on unnecessary Cesareans.  There's no shame in an epidural, but it's best to go without one if you can manage.  You'll also get the best natural high of your life.  I recommend seeing the movie <em><a href="http://www.thebusinessofbeingborn.com/">The Business of Being Born</a></em> to find out more about natural childbirth.  It is a fascinating guide to prenatal care and birth.  If you're like me and embrace the radical philosophy that pregnancy and labor should viewed as a natural and healthy part of life--not as a disability--you will love it (Yeah, some pregnancies have severe complications, but I'm talking about normal pregnancies).

I was looking forward to being pampered during my hospital stay, and although the staff were fantastic, operations at the hospital needed some improvement. First, a room wasn't ready for me in the newborn ward, which meant that my daughter was moved to the nursery while I waited in the delivery room.  Because of hospital security, babies could not be taken from the newborn ward without setting off umpteen alarms, and I could not walk around the hospital by myself after going through labor and wearing a nightgown that didn't tie shut (although I contemplated it.  I was flying on a natural high after the delivery and my inner mama bear was also released during delivery, which was prompting me to do all sorts of over-protective things and get huffy with any nurse that stood in my way).

When the hospital runs out of capacity in the newborn ward, they procure space in other places throughout the hospital.  This is a great use of resources, in theory, but has bad consequences for mother and baby bonding and feeding because of hospital security.  Luckily, a newborn room became available quickly, and I enjoyed a stay with my daughter sleeping by my side.  There are several OR research efforts that address hospital bed issues, and I now truly understand the complexity of these applications (Linda Green wrote <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/10/opinion/nyregionopinions/10LI-Green.html?pagewanted=print">an excellent NY Times article on this issue</a>).

Hospital meals were also a disappointment.  I had to put my order in the day before, which meant that I couldn't order meals the first day of my hospital stay.  I had to eat leftover food that was delivered to the maternity ward that no one else wanted to eat.  As a vegetarian, my options were further limited.  The cafeteria messed up the rest of my food orders as well.  Luckily, a very patient hospital employee tracked down many fresh fruit plates and vegetarian sausage (which is surprisingly delicious!) for me.  I still feel ill when thinking about all the inefficiencies with food delivery.  There has to be a better way.

My daughter's name starts with an "E," which apparently means that she <a href="http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2007/12/a_rose_by_any_other_name_would.html">won't do as well in school</a> if we gave her a name that starts with an "A."  But she's now eight months old and is developing perfectly, so I'm pretty sure we haven't scarred her for life.
]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/the_or_of_birth.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/the_or_of_birth.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Work-Life Balance</category>
        
         <pubDate>Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:44:12 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>free springer journal access</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<img src=http://www.springer.com/?SGWID=0-102-16-153675-0>

Springer is offering <strong>free online access</strong> to their OR journals until August 31.  Their OR journals include <a href="http://scientific-direct.net/c.asp?716778&10be8d2c4e7b2892&23">Flexible Services and Manufacturing</a>, <a href="http://scientific-direct.net/c.asp?716778&10be8d2c4e7b2892&27">OR Spectrum</a>, <a href="http://scientific-direct.net/c.asp?716778&10be8d2c4e7b2892&35">Annals of Operations Research</a>, <a href="http://scientific-direct.net/c.asp?716778&10be8d2c4e7b2892&31">Queueing Systems</a>, and <a href="http://scientific-direct.net/c.asp?716778&10be8d2c4e7b2892&39">Journal of Scheduling</a>.  Happy reading!]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/free_springer_journal_access.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/08/free_springer_journal_access.html</guid>
        
        
         <pubDate>Fri, 01 Aug 2008 19:20:59 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>OR podcast</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.ups.com/img/global_logo.gif", align=left>A <a href="http://www.wypr.org/MD_MORNING.html">podcast</a> featuring operations research appeared on "<a href="http://www.wypr.org/MD_MORNING.html">Maryland Morning</a>," a radio show on an <a href="http://www.npr.org">NPR</a> affiliate.  The podcast highlighted a <a href="http://www.ups.com">UPS</a> project that <a href="http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2007/12/fewer_brown_left_turns.html">optimized right turns</a>.  Ed Kaplan and Jack Levis were interviewed in the podcast.  To find the show, <a href="http://www.wypr.org/MD_MORNING.html">scroll down to July 23</a>.]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/or_podcast.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/or_podcast.html</guid>
        
        
         <pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2008 02:15:24 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>the partition problem in action</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Yesterday I visited <a href="http://www.agecrofthall.com/">Agecroft Hall</a>, one of the niftiest places I've been in <a href="http://www.ci.richmond.va.us/">Richmond</a>.  A large number of people showed up for the 2pm manor tour (there were about 20 people), and one of the tour guides struggled to partition us into two equally-sized tour groups without splitting up any of the families/groups.  I was so excited to see the <strong><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_problem">partition problem</a> </strong>in action that I almost said something really nerdy (I didn't).

The tour guide partitioned us into two rather lopsided groups.  Although the partition problem is NP-complete, it shouldn't have been all that tough to optimally solve the Agecroft Hall instance of 20 people.  I enjoyed the tour anyway.

[Partition problem instance = set of integers.  Can S be partitioned into two subsets such that the sum of the numbers in the first subset equals the sum of the numbers in the second subset?]

<center><img src=http://www.agecrofthall.com/images/house.jpg></center>]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/the_partition_problem_in_actio.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/the_partition_problem_in_actio.html</guid>
        
        
         <pubDate>Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:15:37 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>make better figures.  and maybe a bar graph.</title>
         <description><![CDATA[A speaker (Kurt Smith from the San Diego Sheriff’s Department) at the NIJ conference seemingly talked about using GIS to connect crime mapping with decision making.  He <i>actually</i> talked about how to make readable figures that convey information.  I wish he could talk to my classes!

GIS is widely used by government officials (in cities and localities all over the US) to map crime.  Since decision makers have access to massive amounts of data, they tend to output a lot of data measures.  They even measure the measures (And why not?  They have so much data!).  The San Diego Sheriff’s Department produced a 28 page report every month that was a massive collection of data measures that weren’t well thought out, useful, or meaningful.  By the end of the year, they printed out over 13,000 pages of reports that no one really read.  So they sat down and read the book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Measuring-What-Matters-Simplified-Stakeholders/dp/0891062114/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1216841732&sr=8-1"><em>Measuring What Matters</em></a> and started to decide what data measures were important and meaningful.  Their result was an 8 page monthly report that conveys more information than the 28 page report that it replaces.  Smith also mentioned that not every useful measure had a nice visual, so they formatted those measures in other ways (in this case, it meant not displaying the results on a map and using something like a table instead).

I liked this talk because it highlights a few things that my students don’t want to hear:
<ul>
<li>Displaying data and results is an important skill in the real world that can get you ahead in your job.
<li>Format matters!  Students may grumble about how I take points off for unreadable homework, but it counts in the real world.
<li>Not every figure conveys information.  You don’t have to output everything, especially if you don’t have anything to say about it.  Every figure should tell a story.  The results section of a paper should be built around a few key figures.  Don’t tell a bad story that rambles on forever or isn’t interesting.
<li>A figure doesn’t have to be a figure and a table doesn’t have to be a table.  <i>How</i> results are conveyed is just as important as <i>what</i> they convey.
</ul>

I have had an interest in <strong>bar graphs</strong> lately.  When my three year old daughter switched day cares a few months ago, all the new day care centers I visited were teaching children how to make bar graphs.  I rolled my eyes the first time, but then I took interest.  Bar graphs are very intuitive, even to children a year or two old.  I rarely see bar graphs in OR venues, but I often see bar graphs in non-OR venues.  Since bar graphs are so intuitive, why don't we use them more often?
]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/make_better_figures_and_maybe.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/make_better_figures_and_maybe.html</guid>
        
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:43:58 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>prison population political hot potato</title>
         <description><![CDATA[I attended the <a href="http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/events/nij_conference/welcome.htm">National Institute of Justice Conference</a> this week, and was happy to see a few sessions that were bent toward operations.  (I wrote about OR and criminal justice <a href="http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/01/repeat_sex_offenders.html">here </a>and <a href="http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2007/12/sense_in_sentencing.html">here </a>and last year's NIJ conference <a href="http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2007/08/criminal_justice_loves_or.html">here</a>).  The opening plenary session was a panel on prison populations.  The panel discussed questions regarding the effectiveness in prisons, since the number of people incarcerated has grown by a <b>factor of six</b> in the last 35 years.

Corrections and Medicaid are the only programs that are a growing part of state spending (as a percentage of all spending).  Due to the exploding prison population, <strong>sentencing reform</strong> is a hot topic.  Many states established sentencing commissions in the past two years in order to address sentencing issues such as minimum sentences, truth in sentences, three strikes laws.  Some of the issues include:
<ul>
<li>Parole populations are skyrocketing as a result of more people being sent to prison and as a result of <a href="http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2007/12/sense_in_sentencing.html">reduced sentences for non-violent offenders</a>.
<li>There are usually two extremes in sentencing:  no sentence or a prison sentence.  Other sentences in the spectrum (such as rehabilitation) are rarely used.
<li>Before you accuse the panel of being soft on crime, consider that evidence shows that it is not necessary to put all criminals in prison to reduce crime.
<li> Dora Schriro (from the Arizona Department of Corrections) observed that “good” inmates often become “bad” ex-offenders because prison life is not like life on the outside.  
</ul> 

Of course, this is a very political issue.  Politics is part of the problem (no politician wants to be soft on crime, resulting in long sentences) and must be part of the solution.  Hopefully, OR will also play a role in the solution.]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/prison_population_political_ho.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/prison_population_political_ho.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Criminal justice</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:22:41 +0000</pubDate>
         
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         <title>predicting the presidency</title>
         <description><![CDATA[The second volume of <a href="http://www.analytics-digital.com/analytics/2008summer/?u1=1stissueregistr&pvieww=1027"><em>Analytics </em>is available online</a>.  I was fascinated by the article "The 13 Keys to the White House" by Doug Samuelson.  This article summarizes quantitative historian Allan Lichtman's (very accurate) method for predicting who will win the presidential election.  His method is based on 13 yes-no question (the "keys").  If eight or more of the questions favor the incumbent party, then the incumbent party retains the presidency.  Otherwise, the other party wins.  Lichtman argues that the long campaign between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is not likely to effect the election in November.  The verdict?  Barack Obama is likely to win.]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/predicting_the_presidency.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/predicting_the_presidency.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Politics</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:53:21 +0000</pubDate>
         
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            <item>
         <title>IFORS conference</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Mike Trick is in South Africa and is <a href="http://mat.tepper.cmu.edu/blog/?p=297">blogging about</a> the <a href="http://www.ifors2008.org/">IFORS Conference</a>.  <a href="http://mat.tepper.cmu.edu/blog/?p=297">Check it out</a>!]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/ifors_conference.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/ifors_conference.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">conferences</category>
        
         <pubDate>Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:12:12 +0000</pubDate>
         
      </item>
            <item>
         <title>prescribing anti-depressants</title>
         <description><![CDATA[An <a href="http://www.managementinpractice.com/default.asp?title=GPsstuckinarutwhenprescribingantidepressants&page=article.display&article.id=12253">article</a> in Management in Practice reports on a <a href="http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/54/6/1080?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&author1=Sismeiro+&fulltext=Sismeiro+&andorexactfulltext=and&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&sortspec=relevance&volume=54&resourcetype=HWCIT">paper</a> (by Ramkumar Janakiraman, Shantanu Dutta, Catarina Sismeiro, and Philip Stern) in the <a href="http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/vol54/issue6/index.dtl">June 2008</a> issue of <em><a href="http://mansci.journal.informs.org/">Management Science</a></em> that analyzes how physicians prescribe anti-depressants.  It appears that physicians are creatures of habit.

<blockquote>
More than 9,000 prescriptions were filed, which identified a third of GPs as "responsive" prescribers who took into account their patients' specific needs, and 60% as "inertial" prescribers who did not necessarily make fully informed decisions.

The findings suggest that inertial physicians stopped paying attention to new research findings once they opt for a specific brand and persistently prescribe a few chosen drugs even when facing different patients who might have different needs.
</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/on_antidepressants.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/on_antidepressants.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Health</category>
        
         <pubDate>Mon, 14 Jul 2008 17:47:00 +0000</pubDate>
         
      </item>
            <item>
         <title>Climate policy decisions and decision analysis</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<em><a href="http://www.eponline.com/articles/65104/">Environmental Protection</a></em> and <em><a href="http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/climate-path-0711.html">MIT News</a></em> report on a <a href="http://da.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/5/2/60">paper</a> by Mort Webster from <a href="http://web.mit.edu/">MIT</a> in the most recent <a href="http://da.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/5/2/60">issue</a> of <a href="http://da.journal.informs.org/">Decision Analysis</a> that applies decision analysis tools to climate change policies.  Policy changes are typically sequential, path-dependent, and slow to change.  EP online <a href="http://www.eponline.com/articles/65104/">reports</a> that
<blockquote>
Applying decision analysis in the context of idealized government decision makers over a century raises the question of how to deal with the fact that political systems tend to exhibit "path dependency," a force that makes large policy shifts difficult and rare, and limits most decisions to small incremental changes.

In his paper, [Webster] argues that consideration of path dependence in the context of climate policy justifies greater near-term emissions reductions in what amounts to a hedging strategy. 
</blockquote>

]]></description>
         <link>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/climate_policy_decisions_and_d.html</link>
         <guid>http://blog.vcu.edu/lamclay/2008/07/climate_policy_decisions_and_d.html</guid>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Environmentalism &amp; natural living</category>
        
         <pubDate>Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:40:53 +0000</pubDate>
         
      </item>
      
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